The Rt Hon Sir John Major has become the second former UK prime minister to intervene in the Brexit debate by launching an attack on the approach that government has taken.
In a speech at Chatham House London, Sir Major delivered Britain and Europe – A Reality Check, which labels the results of the EU referendum ‘an historic mistake…that the British nation had every right to make.’
He added,
The Referendum was one of the most divisive votes in British history. It not only divided the four nations of our United Kingdom, but opened up divisions within those nations, within political parties, within neighbourhoods, within families, between age and income groups, and among friends.
Sir Major warned of the threat of the UK falling apart, as Scotland and Northern Ireland’s relationship with England becomes blurry as Brexit evolves.
The former Prime Minister said that he can not longer ‘ignore what [he] leaned in Government, having ‘kept silent’ since June while watching ‘with growing concern as the British people have been led to expect a future that seems to be unreal and over-optimistic’.
‘…Those most likely to be hurt will be those least able to protect themselves’, he continued, and thus felt the need to ‘offer a reality check on our national prospects’ as well as to ‘warn against an over-optimism’.
He also defended the right of Remainers to speak out, responding to accusations that the 48% who voted remain were now seen as ‘arrogant’, ‘brazen’, ‘elitist’ or ‘delusional’ with the aim to ‘undermine the will of the people’:
They do not deserve to be told that, since the decision has been taken, they must keep quiet and toe the line. A popular triumph at the polls – even in a referendum – does not take away the right to disagree – nor the right to express that dissent.
Equally, he added, it is Parliament’s job to scrutinise and ‘be free to debate and comment and advise’ throughout the EU negotiations.
Negotiations are all about “give” and “take”. We know what the Brexiteers wish to take: yet we hear nothing about what our country may have to give in return. If anyone genuinely believes that Europe will concede all we wish for – and exact no price for doing so – then they are extraordinarily naïve.
Sir John Major highlighted the change of status as the UK being a ‘leader within Europe’, to now needing to be ‘far more dependent upon the United States’, which may prove to deliver policies we will increasingly disagree with.
Major emphasised that he is ‘no dedicated Europhile’, but that he ‘never doubted the importance of co-operation with a successful Europe’. He added that the ‘loss of the UK will weaken the EU’ and that this may well damage British interests.
He cautioned everyone over the growth of anti-EU, anti-immigrant and far-right nationalists which has been galvanised by the Brexit vote across Europe:
None of these populist groups is sympathetic to the broadly tolerant and liberal instincts of the British….It seems to be a mixture of bigotry, prejudice and intolerance. It scapegoats minorities. It is a poison in any political system – destroying civility and decency and understanding. Here in the UK we should give it short shrift, for it is not the people we are – nor the country we are.
Sir Major predicted three options that would arrive should a new comprehensive trade deal – which is a hugely complex endeavour – not be delivered by the Spring of 2019:
- We can leave the EU with a flimsy, inadequate deal;
- We can seek a transitional relationship – perhaps for 3-5 years – for which, as non-members, we would have to pay. A minimum option would involve staying in the Customs Union and submitting to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice;
- We can trade with the EU on a WTO basis
He also turned to relationships with China and India:
China and India are both attractive candidates for enhanced trade. But, in negotiation, India will seek immigration concessions for students and non-students alike which, prima facie, is in direct conflict with Government plans. China, as I know from experience, is a tough negotiator, and will strike a hard bargain. As she is the largest trading partner to 120 countries, and the largest export market for 70 of them, a trade agreement with the United Kingdom may not be one of her main priorities.
John Major concluded that we needed to ‘be realistic about the timescale and complexity of the huge undertaking that lies ahead’, but moreover, that ‘ministers must not over-promise’ to the British people.