The UCAS End of Cycle Report 2015 was published yesterday. This and the coming years will be of particular interest as we look at how policy reforms will impact the sector through changes in student decisions. For example, after the announcement of Government changing maintenance grants to loans next year, opening the cap for universities taking in students, and pushing the widening participation commitment.
The report indicates that we did see an increase of 3.9% of students entering higher education from last year, which is the highest number recorded. It’s an 8.2% rise from 2011 overall, although there was a significant drop of 5.6% between 2011 and 2012.
A positive observation was the decline of 0.6% in unplaced applicants between 2014 and 2014. The pattern since 2011, however, fluctuates somewhat: in 2011 unplaced applicants was at a high of 208,130 and for two years declined. However in 2014, unplaced applicants rose by 3% from the previous year. It does appear that the pattern is once again in decline, however next year’s report will provide a better picture.
Looking at accepted applicants in more detail, we see that there is a 3.6% increase of students from the UK, an 11% increase from EU-based students, and a 1.9% increase from international students from 2014. Although an upward trend is observed, the percentage of growth has declined significantly. For example, the growth between 2011-2012 in international student numbers was 6.5%. The following year between 2012-2013 the increase declined to 5.1%. We saw a rise in 2013-2014 of 5.7%, but then this last year it has plummeted to an all-time low of 1.6%. These numbers are crucial if we are to expand our international market and make sure that we continue to be as competitive as other HE industries around the world. Opportunities are growing as various key nations have entered the HE market stage, and the UK cannot afford to be complacent.
The report also highlights that there was an increase from last year of 5% of UK 18 year olds entering HE. Over 21 year olds also rose 3.5% from 98,700 to 102,210. EU 19-19 year olds rose from 16,620 to 18,845, and non-EU 18-19 year olds rose from 21,955 to 23,165.
It would be interesting to keep an eye out in the next few years to see how the ratio between applicants and accepted applicants changes. For example, in the UK, 78.3% of applicants were accepted into HE; from the EU, 57.8% of all applicants were accepted, and from the non-EU, 51.8% were accepted. With Government reforms opening the market to new providers, the question remains whether these students will turn to providers that may not yet have had the opportunity to establish national or international repute. Universities this year made 1.9 million offers to students, the highest number yet recorded, and a continuing trend since 2013. Out of these applicants, 384,100 applicants got their first choice, yet again setting another record.
There was an increase in applicants of 2.7%, which may be the reason for an increase in the acceptance rate by 0.9% to 74.1%. The report reveals that this is one of the largest increases in the acceptance rate since 2006.
In terms of widening participation, there continues to be some concern, although the report suggests that least advantaged young people are 65% more likely to go to university than in 2006. Focusing on gender, while there is an overall average for young women to be more likely to enter HE than young men, the statistic needs to be unpicked for further detail. For example, young women from disadvantaged backgrounds are more likely to enter than young men from similar backgrounds; however this does not apply to applicants from advantaged areas, where results are reversed. However, there was 28.7% more women applicants accepted into HE than men this year. The pattern continues to grow, with an unacceptably large and widening gap between men and women entry rate.
In terms of young people from English state schools, those categorised as from a white ethic background were the least likely to enter higher education with a smaller entry rate of 0.6% than other backgrounds scoring 28%. Those from an Asian background were rated at 41%; Black ethnic background was rated at 37%; Chinese at 58% and those from a Mixed ethnic group at 32%.
The results for further understanding widening participation and widening gaps is worrying and needs further monitoring, particularly as Government has cut the Student Opportunity Fund as announced by Osborne’s CSR.
The Report has a wealth of other information, and can be found by using the link above.